The Rise of Speculative Business School Applicants

• Business school applications and acceptances have both increased by almost 50 percent in the past six years.
• In the same time period, enrollment rates only increased by 13 percent, suggesting that many students are getting accepted but not going on to enroll.
• While applicants are likely aiming to increase their chances of acceptance, they should be aware of potential negative impacts.

More people are getting accepted at business schools than ever before. According to a recent AACSB report, applications and offers increased by 48 and 47 percent respectively over the last six years. But in the same time frame, enrollments went up by just 13 percent.

This trend suggests a rise in so-called speculative applicants—those who apply to business school without going on to enroll. While it may not seem like a big issue at first, it could present problems for both schools and students. So what’s behind the phenomenon?

Behind the Application Surge

“MBA candidates are applying to more schools on average, particularly gravitating toward higher-ranked programs,” explains Petia Whitmore, an admissions consultant and the founder of My MBA Path. “Increased competition has led applicants to hedge their bets by casting a wider net. Many candidates apply to a mix of reach, target, and safety schools, but when admitted to multiple programs, they often enroll at the highest-ranked school that accepts them.”

While rankings can be a useful guide for students in their school selection, they shouldn’t base their decision on this element alone. Yet with more and more students gravitating toward top-ranked programs, the situation is creating a kind of bottleneck in the world of business school admissions, requiring admissions teams to spend more time reviewing the influx of applications—whether serious or not. However, the reach for highly ranked schools is not the only factor behind this trend.

Students "apply to multiple schools to maximize their chances of admission, but sometimes without really considering which program best fits their career goals." —Emilie Lagorsse

“The rise of test waivers and more flexible admissions policies in recent years has made it easier for some candidates to submit applications they might not have pursued otherwise,” continues Whitmore. “At the same time, economic uncertainty and career considerations mean that admitted students are more selective about committing to an MBA, carefully weighing ROI, scholarship offers, and alternative career opportunities before making a final decision.”

Emilie Lagorsse is head of international admissions at IÉSEG School of Management in France. She echoes the thoughts of Whitmore, saying the increase in applications “is not always translated into an equivalent increase in enrollment.”

“Some candidates apply without being fully committed,” she explains. “They apply to multiple schools to maximize their chances of admission, but sometimes without really considering which program best fits their career goals. Some candidates wait until they receive several offers of admission before deciding—particularly if it is based on scholarships.”

According to Ben Stone, admissions manager for international student recruitment at Kingston University in London, this drop in enrollment is particularly common for international students.  “To try and get an international applicant through to an enrolment is so much harder than a home student, because there’s much more to the process,” he explains. “Domestic students are probably going to choose one of five universities, whereas international students will make anything between five to ten applications.”

The Hidden Costs of Speculation

This hedging-your-bets approach isn’t only problematic for schools—it could be problematic for students too. Applying to multiple schools could be a signal that a student is not fully committed to each one, and possibly not clear about what they want to get out of a business degree. Stone says that if candidates are applying to multiple schools, it’s vital for them to explain why in their applications. “It’s not a bad thing if you make applications to lots of institutions in lots of countries, but it’s important to articulate the reasons why in the right way.”

The challenge facing admissions managers like Stone is evident in the numbers. While around 90 percent of Kingston applicants receive a conditional offer, only one-third of that group produce the required documentation, such as proof of qualifications and English language proficiency, to receive an unconditional offer. Then, only around 30 percent of that group go on to request a U.K. student visa.

One factor driving this decrease could be a lack of research on the part of the student; applications made through a knowledgeable recruitment agent tend to achieve better results than individual applications. “Someone who's just trying to figure out all of the barriers themselves will struggle slightly more. It’s possibly a case of not being fully aware of everything that’s required,” says Stone.

How Schools Are Responding to the Challenge

Yet business schools also have a part to play here. According to Nalisha Patel, regional director at GMAC for Europe and the Americas, it’s important that schools “continue engaging with applicants” throughout the process. “They must reinforce the benefits of enrolling and ensure that those who aspire to pursue a business education feel supported in taking that next step,” she says.

Early acceptance also gives students more time to look for housing, apply for financial aid, and generally prepare.

Lagorsse explains some of the steps that IÉSEG has taken to keep students engaged and boost declining enrollment rates. “To address this situation, we offer personalized support from the application stage to understand their motivations and help them refine their choice. For example, we just launched a quiz that indicates the program that best fits their answers and so their expectations.”

IÉSEG offers a financial award to students who accept an offer early in the application cycle. Others offer incentives to students who limit their applications. For instance, the Darden School of Business has an Early Action application round, where students who choose the “binding” option will be asked to pay a nonrefundable deposit and withdraw applications from other schools. In return, they’ll get an early decision, hear about scholarship opportunities before the deadline, and have the chance to schedule an open interview with the admissions team. The initiative is designed to reward an early sign of intent among applicants.

Accepting an offer early has plenty of other benefits, too. For one, it gives candidates more time to arrange a student visa, which Stone highlights as the main stumbling block for international students who are accepted but don’t enroll in a program. Early acceptance also gives students more time to look for housing, apply for financial aid, and generally prepare for what could be a massive moment in their lives.

So if you’re applying to business school, rather than firing off multiple applications, maybe it’s wiser to take the less-is-more approach. It’ll help you get a clear focus on what really matters to you and what you want to get out of graduate business education. Submitting speculative applications may be a tempting option—but not always the right one.