IMAE Monthly Economic Activity Indicator

Theme: Beyond Citations

Research Initiative Summary

The Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity (IMAE) is Latin America’s first regional monthly economic indicator, transforming delayed gross domestic product (GDP) data into actionable insights. Adopted by governments and civic institutions, it improves fiscal management, policy evaluation, and decision-making, serving as a benchmark for regional competitiveness in Colombia.

Inspiration for Research Initiative

The IMAE initiative was born out of a critical gap in regional economic data in Colombia, particularly in Valle del Cauca. At the time, there was no official quarterly or monthly estimate of regional GDP. The only available GDP figure was released annually, often many months after the end of the fiscal year, and exclusively at the national level. This delay left regional governments, businesses, and households without timely, localized economic information, severely limiting their ability to anticipate economic trends, manage risks, or make informed decisions.

In 2015, recognizing the urgency of this challenge, a team of researchers from Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas and economists from Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia) joined efforts to develop a novel, regionally focused solution. They launched the IMAE, the first monthly economic activity indicator of its kind in Latin America, to track economic performance at the subnational level using advanced econometric models and real-time data.

The local challenge went beyond technical limitations: It reflected a structural lack of economic visibility and decision-making power in Colombian regions. Without timely data, regional leaders could not effectively assess the impact of public policies, adjust budgets, or plan strategically. Businesses lacked the insights needed to understand demand cycles or investment opportunities. Even academia was constrained in its ability to study regional economic dynamics in real time.

This information asymmetry created a bottleneck for regional competitiveness. The IMAE was specifically designed to address this by providing a reliable, timely, and transparent economic indicator that reflects the unique dynamics of the regional economy. It enabled local stakeholders to detect economic turning points in advance and respond proactively.

Description of Research Initiative

The IMAE was designed to provide timely monthly estimates of regional economic performance, addressing the lack of updated data that regional governments and institutions require to make informed decisions. Its purpose is not only academic but primarily practical: to equip public authorities with a reliable tool for fiscal planning, policy evaluation, and development strategy.

From its inception, the IMAE has become a direct input for regional and municipal governments. Authorities use it to strengthen fiscal management by projecting revenues more accurately and planning expenditures with less uncertainty. The indicator also enables policymakers to assess the short-term effects of public policies on employment and economic activity, helping them adapt interventions instead of waiting a full year for national GDP figures.

The Secretariat of Economic Development in Cali has adopted the IMAE as a reference to guide local strategies, demonstrating how municipal administrations integrate the indicator into economic development planning. Similarly, in Norte de Santander, the Chamber of Commerce of Cúcuta partnered in the development of the indicator, demonstrating how civic institutions and local governments rely on the IMAE to inform public agendas and regional competitiveness strategies.

Beyond individual cases, the indicator has become the regional benchmark for understanding the economy of Valle del Cauca, Antioquia, Cauca, and Norte de Santander. It empowers regions by providing an independent, credible measure of economic activity, reducing dependence on delayed national statistics.

The methodology, which combines advanced econometric techniques with transparency into variable contributions, ensures rigor while remaining practical and actionable.

The IMAE’s greatest success is its transformation into a policy tool. By providing local governments and civic institutions with timely, reliable economic intelligence, it has improved fiscal discipline, enabled evidence-based policymaking, and strengthened the competitiveness of Colombian regions.

Impact of Research Initiative

The IMAE project, developed by the Department of Economics and Finance at the Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, has had significant impact both within academic circles and far beyond them. The methodology was formally published in the Latin American Research Review, and the initiative has led to four peer-reviewed publications, four research projects, and two scientific meetings. However, the project was intentionally designed to serve practical purposes across public, private, and civil society sectors.

The IMAE has had significant policy relevance. Regional governments use the data to improve fiscal planning, forecast income, and guide budgetary decisions. The indicator enables them to better understand short-term economic dynamics, including employment trends, and evaluate the immediate effects of public policy interventions.

In the private sector, the IMAE serves as a reference for economic conditions in regions where no such tools previously existed. It helps businesses monitor demand, assess market cycles, and reduce uncertainty when planning investments. Its timely and transparent data, derived from observable economic indicators like energy use, industrial production, vehicle sales, and credit, makes it especially valuable for decision makers who need updated, localized information.

The initiative also created impact through institutional collaboration and knowledge transfer. The methodology was successfully replicated in other regions such as Antioquia, Norte de Santander, and the city of Cali. In these cases, the IMAE was adapted in partnership with local institutions such as the Chamber of Commerce and municipal governments. This replication process not only extended the reach of the original research but also fostered local ownership and strengthened regional statistical capacities.

Its widespread credibility is reflected in its citation in around 35 public and private-sector reports and its inclusion in the Banco de la República’s Regional Economic Bulletin. Public dissemination has also amplified its policy relevance. Since 2015, 52 media articles have reported on IMAE results, making the information understandable and accessible to the wider public and strengthening its role as a trusted resource for both policymakers and society.

One of the direct forms of non-academic impact is the regular publication of the IMAE Economic Activity Report, distributed quarterly to more than 5,000 subscribers. These readers include policymakers, business leaders, media professionals, and members of the public who use the report to understand regional economic trends. The report provides clear signals about whether the local economy is accelerating or decelerating, thus serving as a real-time decision-making tool.

While the underlying econometric methods may be complex, the results are accessible and clearly communicated, making the IMAE an effective tool for public discourse. This dissemination has contributed to raising public awareness about regional economic conditions, reinforcing transparency, and enabling informed civic engagement.

Overall, the IMAE initiative exemplifies how rigorous academic research can be transformed into a practical, widely used tool that informs decision-making and strengthens local governance. Its impact is not confined to academic publications; it lives in public reports, regional policies, business strategies, and public understanding of the economy.

Additional Information

• “Proyecto IMAE: Indicador Mensual de Actividad Econometrica” YouTube video (in Spanish)
• “About IMAE”
• “Informes IMAE” (in Spanish)